I last wrote predicting that personal bankrtupcies would drop dramatically in 2006.  Now an article in MSN Money makes me think I might be wrong.  The dramatic dip in bankrtupcy filings after October 17th, 2005 has reportedly picked back up.  If the trend continues–and it isn’t like the entire nation collectively cut up their credit cards–it will mean that 2006 will be business as usual for bankruptcy attorneys and a boon for credit counselors.

Credit counselors are in the position of having a mandated workload due to the new bankruptcy laws.  The new law requires those filing to get credit counseling.  If caseloads return to only 2004 levels, it could be a feeding frenzy for counseling agencies.

Of course, what worries me is the simple idea that where there’s money, there’s usually marketing.  I wonder how many people will end up persuaded into bankruptcy rather than forced into it.  Many won’t pass a means test, which means that they will end up on a payment plan and in credit couseling classes, when what they wanted was forgiveness for loans.

I’m not trying to cheat lenders out of their money by saying that.  But the Chapter 13 payment plan–that can last years–sounds just like what someone might do if they went to a credit agency without filing, or if they just paid off their debt on their own, and got some (or all) lenders to consider accounts paid in full for a settlement amount.  Only if someone goes with a reputable credit agency, or can go it alone properly, they won’t have the ugly word bankruptcy on their credit report for the next decade.

Of course what spurred this law is the fact that bankruptcy isn’t so ugly anymore and hasn’t been for some time.  When I was younger–not all that long ago–I recall bankruptcy being a deep personal shame.  Over the last decade or so, it has gone from being a shame to an understandable difficulty to a financial planning tool.

The new law and the less-recent rule to keep bankruptcies on a credit report for 10 years instead of 7 have tried to use legal means to enforce something where societal shame seemed to have worked better.

But what caused the shame to disappear?  Was it the status that came with holding a golden plastic card in the 1980’s?  The endless stream of easy credit terms and store cards that let one buy everything from a stove to socks on debt?  I can’t pin the blame on anyone with certainty, but as I said before, where there’s money, there’s marketing.  And there’s money in plastic.

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